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    股市行情大盘走势_股市大盘状态走势浅析

    发布时间:2018-11-09 09:45

      有好友问,上周五本专栏合于中继缺口的量度功用该若何体会?咱们且以本年的大盘指数为例来声明:1月29日上证指数创下3587的高点,到6月15日,收于3022点,下跌了565点;6月19日映现大幅跳空的中继缺口,然后连续调剂,至10月19日的最低2449点,又下跌573点。前后两次下跌空间相差无几,根本对称。于是,中继缺口的量度感化简言之便是:改日将要蜕变的幅度,与此前仍旧蜕变的幅度大致等同。

      对大无数投资者来说,宏观、微观不如直观。另有一种比拟直观的器械,便是广为人知的艾略特海浪表面(Elliott Wave Principle)。股市行情大盘走势动作样式说明手艺,海浪表面临研判股市顶底有着万分的帮帮感化,正在实盘操作中,不只为笔者供应了2015年6月15日(a浪下跌的开始)当天清仓的研判凭据,并且还得以规避了本年的熊市c浪下跌危险。那么,现时的大盘浪形又该若何说明呢?

      窥察上证指数月线图(右图),不难看出,自2005年6月的998低点以还,大盘从6124和5178两大高点回落调剂的经过固然是正在分别时候段发作,但组织好像,ABC和abc样式上同样都是一波三折,区别只是空间巨细和时候是非。通过高点连线和低点连线的围合,这十多年的走势彰彰流露出巨型对称收敛样式,股市行情大盘走势笔者客岁正在《股市大盘研判与实证》一书中就已描写了这幅框架组织图。本年10月份,上证指数依期回落到低点连线,并触底反弹。

      目前,股市应处于本轮熊市的C-5浪段,也是新一轮行情的酝酿期。估计正在底部动摇拾掇罢了后,大盘将向上运转,2019年中期或者进入主升浪,上证指数或将冲破4000点,波段高点也许会正在2020年映现。

      原本,“海浪表面”本该译为“海浪道理”,艾略特以为这是务必苦守并奉行的生意原则,决不只仅是表面切磋。此表,这些从股市完全震荡中总结提炼而成的海浪道理,并不相称实用于个股和商品期货的走势说明,由于个股有百般不确定成分,商品又有异常的现货属性。投资业界对海浪道理的实用性存正在偏见分别,此中一大出处便是有些人不明就里、生搬硬套,把它用到了不稳妥的地方。

      

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